Would You Take This Bet?

  • Am Vor 7 years

    VeritasiumVeritasium

    How much would it take for you to risk $10?
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    Psychological literature shows that we are more sensitive to small losses and than small gains, with most people valuing a loss around 1.5-2.5 times as much as a gain. This means that we often turn down reasonable opportunities for fear of the loss. However over the course of our lives we will be exposed to many risks and opportunities and this invariably means that taking every small reasonable bet will leave us better off than saying no to all of them.

    NOTE: The video is not saying to accept every bet, only those with reasonable odds (preferably in your favour), and those which if you lose would not cause significant financial or other damage. In those cases it is wise to be loss averse!

    Filmed by Adrian Tan

    Thanks to Physics Girl for suggestions on previous versions of this video. de-film.com/us/physicswoman

Stefan de Jong
Stefan de Jong

If a stranger would offer me this bet, I would immediately assume it's probably a scam. Am I the only one?

Vor 7 years
Suicidal Potato Man
Suicidal Potato Man

Lol

Vor 2 Tage
PD LAND
PD LAND

@FozZeV elaborate scam ...

Vor 2 Tage
PD LAND
PD LAND

@Veritasium All scammers lie , so your assurance is no assurance at all .

Vor 2 Tage
Sam The Man
Sam The Man

I have faith in humanity

Vor 2 Tage
slidingconstant
slidingconstant

I would want to get a coin from a random bystander and allow that bystander to do the flips.

Vor 3 Tage
Nightenstaff
Nightenstaff

My very first thought when you offered 12 versus 10 was, "Only if we can flip it 100 times". This showed me I should hold out for the 2:1 bets.

Vor Monat
Yuxuan Huang
Yuxuan Huang

I have a broken machine that I sometimes use. Repair it with 100 and it may work, but is outdated. Buy a new one for 500, and I scrap the old one for spare parts. I'm just afraid to bet 100 because it might fail for me

Vor 3 Tage
Monny18
Monny18

@MyRegardsToTheDodo Instead of thinking of it as, you only win 10 dollars if you get unlucky(you have to be really, really unlucky) and only win 34 tosses, think of it as, on average you will win 500 dollars, and you are very unlikely to stray far off of that. You unconsciously make these bets all the time, for example when you go for a ride in your car, you are much more likely to to have an accident than to lose money in the experiment before, but it doesn't stop you from going somewhere. This is an example you're probably familiar with, and you gain way more from the experiment of the 100 coin tosses than from taking your car a single day and going somewhere(I'm thinking of damages, hospital bills if you have them, and so on). Why would you take one bet and not take the other?

Vor 7 Tage
Sivan
Sivan

@MyRegardsToTheDodo Why did you stop replying to sand mand again?

Vor 8 Tage
Nightenstaff
Nightenstaff

@Eddy McSandbag I have been known to enjoy murderous chocolate every now and again.

Vor 13 Tage
Eddy McSandbag
Eddy McSandbag

arent u the lindt chocolate bloke with the calendar

Vor 13 Tage
laibabbasi
laibabbasi

I was shocked to see that no one took the bet easily.. because my father played this game with me various times and in that i was ready to lose my money(although i don't have much money).. but he wanted us to learn to take small risks.. from there I learned not to think about small losses much and it'd helped me in taking some decisions quite easily..and plus i feel more confident sometimes iykyk;)

Vor 11 Tage
Hans
Hans

We don't know how many said yes

Vor 5 Tage
Dominic Pankau
Dominic Pankau

Hi beautiful

Vor 6 Tage
laibabbasi
laibabbasi

@Ruchunteur yea that's a good point👍

Vor 8 Tage
Ruchunteur
Ruchunteur

Sound normal to me, to the people in the video it's a one time thing that most definitely not going to happen again. So in their head it's all about the very permanent lost they could experienced. Losing the 10$ for no reason at all. Until there was mention of multiple throw that is. But for you it isn't a one time thing. You and your father play this regularly. You know you'll have a chance to making your money back and/or win more than you started with. And even if you didn't end up on top by the end, it's not a loss as bad as with a stranger since your father probably have spend money on you at many occasion unrelated to those bets.

Vor 9 Tage
Cheydinal
Cheydinal

I love how at the end of the video, he accidentally gave you the advice that you can get better odds by just refusing to take risk unless and until you get better odds (one guy wins $10, the other $12, the other $20). Which, well, to be fair, is also good advice: Make sure to spend your limited energy on the best bets

Vor Monat
faismasterx
faismasterx

It's incredible how much value people walk away from. This is a great lesson in probability and human behaviour.

Vor 6 Tage
Jeff Mcafee
Jeff Mcafee

A little extra math for anyone interested. The long term expected value was hinted on in the video by saying that over 100 bets, you expect to win $500, with a 1/2300 chance of losing money. To explain this better you have to understand the relationship between expected value and variance (or standard deviations). In his 10 vs 20 bets, the player's expected value is +$5 per bet. The standard deviation of each bet is $15, that is to say the player's expectation is $5 +/- $15. Now, in the long term, expectations are linearly proportional whereas the standard deviations are proportional to the square root of the number of trials. So for 100 bets, the player's expectation is +100*$5 (+$500). The standard deviation is sqrt(100)*$15, or $150. One standard deviation away from the mean encompasses roughly 2/3 of all possible outcomes. Therefore the player after 100 bets, has a 2/3 chance of being up between $350 and $650. Apply that math even farther, say 1,000,000 bets. Expectation = $5,000,000 Standard Deviation = sqrt(1,000,000)*$15 = $15,000. As the sample size grows, the standard deviation becomes a smaller and smaller proportion of the expected value. This is the math that card counters, casinos, and even stock brokers rely on to make money.

Vor 7 years
nirorit
nirorit

​@Jochem vd Berg I'd argue it's deeper.

Vor 2 Monate
Jochem vd Berg
Jochem vd Berg

Bro its not that deep

Vor 2 Monate
Keeyan Miller
Keeyan Miller

@Jeff Mcafee what math did you learn this in? Just curious because I want to learn stuff like this but I am only in high school. Would it be AP statistics or something like that?

Vor 4 Monate
ThePrufessa
ThePrufessa

@adnane Idrissi WTF are you talking about?

Vor 3 years
ThePrufessa
ThePrufessa

And yet a so-called math teacher proclaimed that the 1/2300 chance of losing is too high for him to take the risk.

Vor 3 years
Zafer Sernikli
Zafer Sernikli

What’s great with this video is that each time the bet was rejected, Derek offers another bet that reveals the psychology behind the decision. Fun fact: The video should get half a million views to pay the loss, and got 6.3 million so far :)

Vor Monat
bla blup
bla blup

7 million by now , so he easily won his money back :D

Vor 17 Tage
Sumit Mehta
Sumit Mehta

I'm so glad that there are people like you who spread the knowledge instead of dancing in front of a camera for attention. Keep up the good work mate. 👍

Vor 9 Tage
Kyle Mart
Kyle Mart

As someone with a history of advantage gambling and investing, I actually experienced physical pain seeing these people turn down these bets and hearing their rationale.

Vor Monat
Milkymalk
Milkymalk

You also have to keep in mind the circumstances. If $10 ist all I have and I need them for eomething important, losing those $10 will hurt me more than gaining $12 will benefit me. The profit/loss is not the pure number, but what that number represents to me. That's why game theory, if done right, translates that net win into some kind of score. If losing $10 means I can't pay my rent, and gaining $12 means I can go watch a movie, then the stakes are not +12/-10, but more like +12/-1000.

Vor 11 Tage
Archvaldor's Warcraft Hacks
Archvaldor's Warcraft Hacks

@Kyle Mart "I could argue to be the one to flip the coin, flip my own coin, or inspect his coin." You are going to get an ear full of cider. There are thousands of ways to scam people in the scenario where you do those things-indeed the most common way is simply to not pay up using psychology, sleight of hand, fraudulent payment or brute force.none of which will be affected by your checking procedures. As for the filming thing-that strikes me as a great way for a team to get people to trust themt. As an AP I would encourage to read up on gambling scams- AP's are naturally vulnerable to scams in a way the general public are not.

Vor 11 Tage
Kyle Mart
Kyle Mart

@Archvaldor's Warcraft Hacks I could argue to be the one to flip the coin, flip my own coin, or inspect his coin. Given that there is someone else filming, I am more likely to believe it is an anthropologic study than a street scam though the latter is certainly possible.

Vor 14 Tage
Archvaldor's Warcraft Hacks
Archvaldor's Warcraft Hacks

"As someone with a history of advantage gambling and investing"...you should have more street smarts than you are exhibiting.

Vor 15 Tage
Nathan Morante
Nathan Morante

@arya patel this is just wrong if there was advantaged play in every game they wouldn’t have casinos😭blackjack is the only casino game you can beat (poker not included cause that’s against other players)

Vor 19 Tage
Arsteel
Arsteel

I'd love to see this go into talking about the "Credit Card Game", where everyone at a table in a restaurant puts in their credit card and the unlucky person to get selected pays for everyone's tabs.

Vor Monat
William Borough
William Borough

My friends and I have done this. And I’ve actually lost so many times at the start that they just started to leave my card out because they felt bad for how much I lost

Vor 26 Tage
Veritasium
Veritasium

For those who are wondering, I convinced my interviewees that the bet was not a scam: they could inspect the coin, flip it themselves, use their own coin etc. I explained that the experiment was intended to explore their approach to risk. It was fear of losing $10, not distrust, that led them to decline the bet.

Vor 7 years
sorsocksfake
sorsocksfake

I wonder if that could be tested properly. By their expressions I'm not sure they all fully accepted that, Whether they say they accept it, consciously accept it, unconsciously accept it, or unconsciously accept it and undo any prior priming effects, could get different results. I.e. even if you convinced them factually, they may already be commited not to play, based on a scam-analysis. They may have created quasi-reasons not to play (as humans do) which are harder to dismantle, and their urge for consistency would go against playing.

Vor 5 Tage
Joe Darden
Joe Darden

@Kestrel 342 If I were good at calculating implied odds in the moment I'd be a much more successful poker player ;)

Vor 6 Tage
Kestrel 342
Kestrel 342

@Joe Dardenthink of the implied odds that you earn more money by betting later

Vor 6 Tage
Luke Aladeen
Luke Aladeen

They thought your $10 was counterfeit

Vor 28 Tage
spaceLem
spaceLem

I'll admit that I've taught stats and I do a lot of stats for a living, so I'd be able to figure out the distribution of outcomes. I don't do betting for money, but by the time we had enough coin flips to reach a 95% chance of not losing anything, I might start to consider it.

Vor Stunde
Ruchunteur
Ruchunteur

Funny enough it's a behavior that I experienced even in video games where there is no real stake. When presented with two piece of equipment and that you can only use one and that those two pieces of equipment are roughly equal in value but give different stats I had the tendency to favor the piece that I was already wearing. Even if the other piece gave a little bit more stat overall, the fact that I was trading away the stats that I already had for another stat felt like a loss even if in the end the value of those stats were roughly the same or very slightly higher in the new piece (I'm thinking of "Loop Hero" if anyone was wondering)

Vor 9 Tage
SiebeLouis
SiebeLouis

Thank you so much Veritasium 💟 I am following you for years now, and just came across this video. Had a very rough year, mom passed away, broke up with my girlfriend etc. I am 31. Studied mechanical engineering, BSc, and MSc. And have my masters in science and innovation management. In a sense I am lucky, giving the state of the world. Last year I stopped working, and couldn’t find purpose, wasn’t trying either btw. Finding purpose is a gambling game of it’s own, but you have to ‘play to win’. If you ain’t gonna move, you ain’t gonna groove 💃🏾 so to speak. From tomorrow on, I’m going to participate in life again, and ‘betting on heads’. In a 100 times saying yes, my chances are better to find what I am looking for, then not ‘playing’ at all. Much love from Amsterdam 💟

Vor 3 Tage
Often Dead
Often Dead

Did you try lowering the bet? It’s interesting how the risk aversion lowers with the value of the loss even if the odds of losing are increased. I have a slightly pragmatic view; basically I consider the entertainment value of the activity. If what I would be prepared to pay to do it is equal to or below the potential loss then you can only win either way.

Vor Monat
Jihad
Jihad

Just run away if you lose, giving you a 100% chance of not losing 10 dollars.

Vor 3 years
Atlas Stone
Atlas Stone

Ahh the political move

Vor 11 Tage
ʜᴀᴍᴀ ᴛᴀʜɪʀ
ʜᴀᴍᴀ ᴛᴀʜɪʀ

What if you lost against Usain bolt? Thats more like 100% chance of losing the 10 dollars

Vor 15 Tage
ChainsMp Andersen
ChainsMp Andersen

You Got somthing right there

Vor 15 Tage
elad
elad

This is exactly what I thought

Vor 15 Tage
Jitendra Rekhi
Jitendra Rekhi

Yes

Vor 15 Tage
TheRussyM
TheRussyM

You've essentially described Two-Up, Australia's gambling game that is only allowed on one day of the year. The odds are actually the best for any gambling game you will play - if you have deep enough pockets to double your bet each time, you are guaranteed to at least break even. This is of course reliant on playing multiple consecutive games.

Vor 5 Tage
TheBodyOnPC
TheBodyOnPC

This could just as well have been risk aversion as loss aversion. Someone even mentioned the risk of the bet.

Vor 3 Tage
Vincent K.
Vincent K.

Risk aversion may also depend on a variety of other factors that influence decisions in the moment.

Vor 16 Tage
Agame Ann
Agame Ann

The take away from this is that, in the short term there may be a loss due to a risk, but in the long term it certainly is worth it in the bigger picture.

Vor 26 Tage
ThunderTurtle
ThunderTurtle

Nobody wants to make a bet on a coin toss from a physicist.

Vor 5 years
Oliver Johnson
Oliver Johnson

@Blob true, but your overall probability of winning money goes up the more you do it

Vor 2 Monate
Hamza Sultan Zuberi
Hamza Sultan Zuberi

@Blob that's only mathematically true, reality is different.

Vor 8 Monate
Daniel Gögeleien
Daniel Gögeleien

@Nukestarmaster best answer!

Vor 8 Monate
Woody Weaver
Woody Weaver

Or a kid. When I was twelve or so, both I and my best friend worked at tossing coins -- just trying to get repeatability. The flip up and catching back down repeated correctly would give us back what we started with (and you can either catch and hold to get that, or catch and flip to get the other.) Oh, sure, its imperfect -- the best run I ever had was 30 heads in a row -- but its much more skewed than 50/50.

Vor 9 Monate
senseUNcommon
senseUNcommon

Very risky

Vor year
Chris Christenson
Chris Christenson

The math on the perfect bet size for numerous trials is worked out depending on stake and expected value

Vor 8 Tage
Jeriatrick
Jeriatrick

Initially I would refuse like the people in the clip but know you have explained it so clearly I would take the chance.

Vor 25 Tage
Global Garage
Global Garage

Just discovered your channel (late I know) but it’s outstanding. Thanks for the quality content.

Vor Monat
Majic8ball
Majic8ball

Daniel Kahneman’s thinking fast and slow explains this phenomenon very well in part 4 of the 5-part book. Would recommend to read about loss aversion+prospect theory.

Vor 23 Tage
King Bradley
King Bradley

This is such a good book to read honestly. I remember finishing it last year and the whole idea of sub conscious is explained really well

Vor 21 Tag
Mick Lord
Mick Lord

This is a perfect evidence that we need more statistics in public schooling.

Vor 10 Monate
Welt Siebenhundert
Welt Siebenhundert

on the street?

Vor 27 Tage
Visible Human
Visible Human

@40 Watt but this comment is (I’m guessing, sorry if not) in reference to when there is more than one match, so the chance of losing money net when betting less is very low.

Vor 29 Tage
Dick Urkel
Dick Urkel

@Kittenpox This is an absolutely horrible example. You've introduced new variables for winning/losing, which honestly both seem like a bad deal (dying immediately or living longer). There's no reason to overcomplicate a situation which is already extremely simplified.

Vor 29 Tage
NinasteN
NinasteN

@Burgo the bet should be taken if it is guaranteed that the process is honest (and that there is indeed a 50/50 conflip). When it is offered by a stranger on the street, caution is warranted, and likely strengthened by a bet that appears to have good odds "this person wouldn't offer me such good odds if nothing fishy were going on").

Vor 29 Tage
Estanislau Kalashnikov
Estanislau Kalashnikov

Marginal value also plays a role; to the point that I bet that it's baked into our instincts, creating such risk aversion. The more of a resource that you have, the less important each additional unit of that resource becomes; and conversely, the less of a resource that you have, the bigger the deal it is when you lose one unit of that resource. As such, losing X amounts of a resource will be always a bigger deal than getting X units of the same resource. That has some interesting implications: * Richer people will accept risks regarding a set amount of money more often. * If you lower the amount of money (from 10 dollars to, say, 10 cents), people will accept the risk a bit more. * As the video explored: if there are multiple iterations of the same event, as the risk gets lower people will be slightly more eager to accept it.

Vor Monat
cccspwn
cccspwn

Well some people… some less mathematically inclined still don’t see the benefits of repeat experiments

Vor 17 Tage
MZIH
MZIH

The more this is repeated, the more stable it will become near 50/50 mostly, and I think that is why people are not taking a one-time bet. The results have equal chances to be positive or negative.

Vor 15 Tage
Munch KING
Munch KING

A thing I heard is most coins (especially the ones intended to be currency rather than gambling facilitators) are not actually properly weighted to be 50/50 when flipped. The difference from that was small enough for most people to consider it negligible, but they are weighted to land on one side more often. IIRC, American coins were slightly heavier on heads.

Vor 29 Tage
Fevolenko
Fevolenko

Heavier on heads meaning they tend more towards tails, or heavier to heads being the result?

Vor 22 Tage
no no
no no

This is irrelevant unless someone knew which side the coin was weighted to.

Vor 27 Tage
Nina Raven
Nina Raven

Since the amount of money doesn’t change the probability that I would lose out, imo it is insignificant how much is being bet unless I don’t mind losing the money for whatever reason. While I may decide in the moment it is worth the risk, logically it makes more sense to me to just stay as I am than risk the loss, even if it is small. £10 for £10 has just as much risk that I would lose £10 as £10 for £1000. Also, even repeating the bet multiple times does not guarantee me anything. In theory, sure you’d win approximately 50% of the time, but nothing stops you from losing every time other than the abstract concept of probability itself (and coins don’t have memory or care about probability). Overall, logically it does not seem worth risking unless the money is sorely needed and the amount potentially being lost is very small and disposable. (Ik this is perhaps more of a subjective line of reasoning however)

Vor Monat
Richard Kan
Richard Kan

A guy goes up to the bar owner with a wager "I'll bet you £100 that I can piss into a beer glass you hold in front of you from 3 feet way" barman grinned from ear to ear and agreed. The guy pissed all over the barman, not a drop went into the glass. "Guess I missed. Here's your £100." He then walked outside and collected a £500 bet he'd won from his mates.

Vor year
thanmay jinu
thanmay jinu

Stonks 📈

Vor Monat
illuminous
illuminous

xD pissing worth £1000 though...

Vor Monat
Uzair Ahmad
Uzair Ahmad

stonks

Vor Monat
peppa pig fan
peppa pig fan

300 iq moment

Vor 2 Monate
Tom Derri
Tom Derri

The version i heard ended with "heres your 100, but i bet my mates over there 500 i could piss all over your bar and get away with it!

Vor 2 Monate
Terrence Zellers
Terrence Zellers

With you (someone I know or recognize as someone with credibility to lose) I'd take it at 12 (well if I had the sense that by holding out you'd go higher, I'd say no until I thought you were at your limit... one thing you haven't considered in the risk aversion discussion is potential opportunity cost ... if I took the bet at 12 would I be losing the opportunity to have the bet at 15 or 20?). ... so being at a point in life where I'd barely notice ten bucks unless there were circumstances where I wouldn't have opportunity to use a debit or credit card for things I'd need ... and with you as someone likely to use an honest coin and to pay up if losing, yes I'd take the bet once I considered the risk/reward value worth my time. But again you didn't touch on opportunity cost. An expense of ten dollars is next to nothing to me..... but if someone is walking around with less than 50 dollars and some upcoming expenses, that potential 10 dollar cost is potentially a much higher impact to them ... say being stuck somewhere without a ride home, or needing to buy something and not having the money available. Perhaps "opportunity cost" should be better described as "opportunity risk".

Vor 15 Tage
The Walking Miracle
The Walking Miracle

Good idea to start saving money and when you have tons of it, start taking a bunch of risks everyday, and after 2 years no matter how much money you may have losted, you may also have tripled by the other 50% winning chances

Vor 3 Tage
newp gaston
newp gaston

That's an interesting idea! It's funny, because as a poker player, I would take that bet in an instant ($10 vs $20, or even just 10 vs 12), BUT I also do feel like losses are way more impactful than gains... I guess after playing enough poker you just get used to it, and only see your EV! I imagine you only showed those who were hesitant (to explain the idea behind it), but I'm curious about how many wanted to take it at 10 vs 12, at 10 vs 15, 10 vs 20, etc..! (I think some of them might not have not stats/probability very well though, which may have influenced their thought process; Doing it 100 times at 10 vs 20 is a no brainer, it's basically a guaranteed gain). One example I've seen used a few times in poker discussions about variance, that would fit well here: If you could bet your house vs TWO houses, would you do it? Of course not... Losing your house hurts you a lot more than winning two houses would help you. But if you could do it 1000 times, would you do it? Of course, as long as you know it's legit, you're gonna end up with roughly 500 houses by the end of it.

Vor 23 Tage
KeiLun
KeiLun

It’s like cs I have a 80% at 1000and 20 at 800 for the cost of 900 and I wouldn’t do that

Vor 18 Tage
Mantas Valciukas
Mantas Valciukas

Well that would largely depend if you have the 1000 houses to lose, otherwise you wouldn't get the bet, no? So management of your assets comes into play, if you've budgeted and losing that 10$ is more significant to you then the 20% estimated return, then it makes sense to account for that as well.

Vor 21 Tag
PH Music
PH Music

I really like your one house vs. two house analogy. A situation that I often think of to demonstrate loss aversion when you have only one chance goes something like this: Suppose I have a 1 in 10 chance of winning one million dollars in a sweepstakes. (Assume that there is no tax on the winnings, and no risk that the sweepstakes fails to pay.) It costs $25,000 for this 1 in 10 chance at one million dollars. If I could play the sweepstakes only one time, I probably wouldn't do it, because I can't afford to lose $25,000, and there is a 9 in 10 chance that I would lose. But if I could play hundreds of times, and if I didn't have to find the money to pay for all of my $25,000 entries until the end, then I think I would do it, because I would be almost guaranteed to win a ton of money.

Vor 23 Tage
Munch KING
Munch KING

The ending, about applying it to the choices in your life is a lot less mathematically sound than the coin flip scenario though, because unlike a coin flip, I don't have knowledge of the odds of risks coming to fruition in the real world. I know a coin flip is 50/50 and thus can calculate the return on risk I am accepting, but calculating that for other life choices that don't have extensive documentation on the odds makes coming to a sound mathematically backed reason much harder.

Vor 29 Tage
Brian Viktor
Brian Viktor

The moment he offered to bet 10-12, I'd have asked how many iterations he'd be willing to do. The more the better.

Vor year
Parker Zimmerman
Parker Zimmerman

I would do the 10

Vor 9 Monate
Diaga Star
Diaga Star

I doubt you would have

Vor 10 Monate
The Insane Shecklador
The Insane Shecklador

If someone came up to me on the street offering an edge that large I'd be concerned that something was fishy. Perhaps a rigged coin toss somehow or a slight of hand trick. Along the lines of a 3 card monte scammer. Assuming it is on the up and up I'd take the bet all day everyday. Or even just the single time if that was all that was offered to me. I'm guessing that many people who would turn down this bet have no problem wasting money on the lottery.

Vor 10 Monate
Puqs
Puqs

@Isomer Mashups But also the less you have more the win is valuated.

Vor 10 Monate
SubtleHyperbole
SubtleHyperbole

If he offered 10 dollars and 1 cent, then the answer of how many iterations would actually matter—not just the more the better. What if he offered 10.01 and three iterations. Would you take that bet?

Vor 10 Monate
Matthew Lloyd
Matthew Lloyd

Kind of also shows the flaw in Pascal's wager where it fails to convince most people because their belief in the loss outcome is simply non existent in the first place.

Vor Monat
Simone Michieli
Simone Michieli

In my first year of statistics one of our professors made us calculate the odds of various types of lottery and scratchcards for practice, we all expected them to be scams but it was really shocking just how bad the odds are, for exemple IIRC the italian national lottery could multiply all rewards by 100x and It would still be a bad bet I wonder how many people that would avoid "immidiate" risk like this even when favorable then go and play others much worse forms of gambling because the emotional impact is different for exemple when it comes to pure gambling roulette is the fairest game by miles but many casual casino frequenters get intimidated by it and gravitate more to slots which have much much worse odds

Vor 16 Tage
The Church Pool
The Church Pool

This is a good video, I’m actually amazed though that people wouldn’t take the £15 bet let alone even more. My only nitpicking point though is- in a video about odds and probabilities, can you really say “you are ‘GUARANTEED’ to win out of 100”?

Vor 6 Tage
Jase_R
Jase_R

This man melts my brain with information and I love it

Vor 19 Tage
reynolds619
reynolds619

These people need to take a stats class. You have to be insane not to take a 2:1 bet especially when done 100 times

Vor 3 years
HamsterFromAbove
HamsterFromAbove

You are the type of person casinos love. If you think you have an advantage then you are all in. But you need to calculate your max losses you can sustain. How many times can you lose the bet in a row and still be able to afford the next one?

Vor 3 Monate
Umi ZoomR
Umi ZoomR

@MegaWarlus And you're projecting a bit there

Vor 10 Monate
Nick Llama
Nick Llama

These people would absolutely FAIL a stats class.

Vor 10 Monate
Sophie Jones
Sophie Jones

@Beluwuga you are right it depends on how important is what your betting not the amount. If you are poor and that is all you have and don't what to lose it. It might seem so small to them but very important to you. So they should not undervalue you or decisions because they don't fully know your circumstance. People arrive to their decision because of what they think is best for them

Vor year
Cakemagic
Cakemagic

If he raised the money to 12 vs my 10, I would have totally said yes at that point. And in fact, I hope to be able to do it as many times as I want.

Vor Monat
Zero
Zero

Fun fact, gamblers while more affected by losses, are most affected by the time before they have neither won or lost.

Vor Monat
Mike Hibbett
Mike Hibbett

My take is "you came to me with this proposal. You have prepared for this, and are happy to bet your large input to my small input." So, my take is I distrust the bet. I believe, since you prepared in advance, that you have arranged this so it is not a 50/50 odds situation.

Vor 5 Tage
Msl3a
Msl3a

Unbelivable Man. Really love what he does. I would accept a bet where he gives me just a few extra cents per toss of coin if I win, we make it couple million times and I'm nowhere short of money. This really wouldn't be a game of chance but sweet callulated decision for me and devastating lose for him.

Vor Monat
Faizaan
Faizaan

i'd say let me flip the coin... then just run of with it. INSTANT PROFIT

Vor 3 years
Clucking Chicken
Clucking Chicken

off**

Vor 2 Monate
Belcultassi
Belcultassi

best reply

Vor 9 Monate
Faizaan
Faizaan

@Ol.Iv. we've come a long way 😌 good work ladies and gentlemen 🤣

Vor 10 Monate
Ol.Iv.
Ol.Iv.

My like is 5000th,nice comment dude;)

Vor 10 Monate
Rocky Atlantis
Rocky Atlantis

Running away with 50cent coin! He will not chase you and you will look stupid running for cents!

Vor 10 Monate
Nick Jeffery
Nick Jeffery

For me, I understand the odds, and if I could be sure that it was a fair bet, I would definitely do it for $12 (well, £12, as I'm in the UK)... my worry would be that maybe the random person approaching me to make this offer had some sort of trick up their sleeve to ensure I always lose - like the three card monte shysters do...

Vor Monat
Paul Cook
Paul Cook

5:00 Literally just one my first running race from this philosophy. Completely went for it, not caring if I blew up because "so what if I did".

Vor 16 Tage
juniatamc
juniatamc

100 bets are very likely to get you a positive outcome and taking this bet is indeed "indisputably favorable" , but it is not "guaranteed" that you win. The higher the number of tosses, the more likely it is that the balance gets closer and closer to the expected value, but there is always a non zero risk of losing. Yes, it is small in the case of 100 tosses, but it never disappeares.

Vor 2 Monate
Shaun Hermans
Shaun Hermans

Another factor to consider is how much more risk averse you may become if you happen to lose, and how much more likely you are to take more and bigger risks in future if you win.

Vor 3 Tage
Guanting Liu
Guanting Liu

The volatility in this investment is crazy, and a zero/positive expected return doesn't justify that. Yeah, good work anyways. It's always good to know some probability.

Vor Monat
Dalton Lightfoot
Dalton Lightfoot

The incentive to play needs to be equal or greater than the loss. Making it equal or greater will essentially mean they will lose nothing but gain anything.

Vor Tag
S J
S J

“This video will be profitable for me if it gets, like, half a million views”… So awesome seeing this 7 years and 6.5 million views later. Keep it up Mr. Veritasium!

Vor Monat
J C
J C

When he offers more than 10, I would immediately ask how many times we can play and who can decide to quit. Edit: ah of course he goes in to it. If he's offering you even $12 to your $10 but he's willing to do it 10 times you're absolutely better off and I would do this in a heartbeat

Vor 4 Tage
Tomas Beblar
Tomas Beblar

My friend and I repeatedly flip for a dollar when we hang out. The expected monetary value is $0 but we still do it because it generates entertainment for both of us, which in itself has value. Effectively, we are generating value out of nothing.

Vor 2 Monate
TheNeomare
TheNeomare

@Steven Claeys They are generating value without spending money. So kind of out of "nothing" but not really. However they could probably do the same if they did just hanged out and did something else fun together. Value comes from their frendship and the cost is the actually the time (well its always time) + the money to upkeep that time, so the food to get the calories back and so on... So after enough flips the dolar is more like a prop rather than money altough at certain times one of them will be a tiny bit ahead which generates excitement i guess :D. It is definatly not a divident on that dolar. They could have played for prestige points instead and been fliping anything really instead and after i dont know 5000 flips one of them would be tiny bit ahead maybe and then they could pay that out in dolars. like 5, 10 or 15 but that is such a small fraction of 5000 that the value is really not coming from money right there and there it is coming out of their relationship and that is about it. Cheers!

Vor 7 Tage
Nicolás Guzmán
Nicolás Guzmán

excuse me, but, what is “to flip”?

Vor 9 Tage
Xbladey
Xbladey

Ok

Vor 12 Tage
Cheapie
Cheapie

Uh, you’re generating value from time and energy, how almost all value is generated.

Vor 13 Tage
Zuignap
Zuignap

@Slice funny joke

Vor 15 Tage
m n
m n

I'm a risk taker with all career related decisions. I've ditched safe for the unknown. It's literally paid off in spades and my skill set is ultra competitive. It's what I tell the youngins - don't play safe. Do what scares you.

Vor 14 Tage
May
May

Well, I guess it depends on how much risk I am willing to take considering what you are offering whether it is a good offer or a bad offer.

Vor 26 Tage
Blue Tube
Blue Tube

I'm fascinated by this phenomenon, and have a theory that it would be based on a percentage. For example, if I have $100 and lose $50, my loss is 100% of my new total; had I not taken the risk, I would now have twice as much. If I have $100, and win $50, my gain is 33% of my new total. Had I not won, I would still have 2/3 as much as I do now. So, losing hurts more than winning, especially if you are already faced with scarcity. I also suspect that when you stop being faced with scarcity, this phenomenon shifts. Like, if I have $10M in the bank, and a guy asks to bet me $11 against my $10 on a 50/50 chance, I am taking that bet every time, because I can play that game a million times before I hit bottom. But if that's my last $10, I probably say no, because I figure I will want to eat later, and an extra $11 isn't worth a 50% chance of going hungry for a day. In my current state of life, I'm happy to say I'd take the bet at $11. Ten years ago, I would probably have talked him up to $20.

Vor 7 Tage
slidingconstant
slidingconstant

For me, it's all about loss. You could put up $11 (instead of $20) per "chance", and I'd say "yes" if it was 10 chances to something like 50 or 100 chances (the upper limit is ONLY to limit TIME). The other trick is that we'd have to do ALL the playing before ANY money changed hands.

Vor 3 Tage
Hokeypokeyy
Hokeypokeyy

People in this video: "nah i dont like risk" Me at the casino " betting 10x the money and half the odds in this video"

Vor 3 years
Dioni
Dioni

@energy man What I'm trying to say is that if there was, they would got rid of it, because the game is rigged.

Vor 2 years
energy man
energy man

@Dioni what I'm trying to say is that maybe there IS a way to outsmart the cassino, we just didn't think of it yet.

Vor 2 years
Dioni
Dioni

@energy man yes, and I also know that if they catch you counting cards you'll be kicked out pretty fast.

Vor 2 years
energy man
energy man

@Dioni did ya ever heard of ed thorp, who developed a strategy to get odds better than 50/50 in blackjack by counting the cards and calculating the odds of him winning with a computer?

Vor 2 years
Max Liu
Max Liu

There's something called a Sharpe ratio which is used by finance firms to measure their rate of "success". It's basically a measure of returns divided by volatility. Basically you want higher returns and low volatility so that ur returns are less likely to be wiped out by volatile markets in the short run. Similarly in this game, even if there's a high return offered, playing a single round has such high volatility that it still might not be "worth". The more rounds of the game are offered, the lower the volatility, making the game more worth it.

Vor 13 Tage
guess its 2late now
guess its 2late now

for anyone interested the concept behind this advantage on the long term is called law of large numbers

Vor 26 Tage
GHOSTEYE XTXZ
GHOSTEYE XTXZ

4:53 Thank you for hitting us with such surprisingly wise words.

Vor 23 Tage
Gromp
Gromp

if people could do this a few times, then yes it is good to give 10 in order to win 20, but if you do it only once, it's better to increase the chance than the reward

Vor Monat
Fungamerplays
Fungamerplays

imagine being the guy who took the bet and won $10 and then you see the video and realise someone else got $20 out of it just because they were more sceptical

Vor 2 years
Richard Evans
Richard Evans

But if they waited then the flip for the 10:20 might have been a loss, he can’t guarantee to flip the coin the same every time, unless he was a scammer that knows how to false flip a coin and then he definitely would’ve lost

Vor 9 Monate
fred smith- king of the lunatics
fred smith- king of the lunatics

@WTFBOOMDOOM nah mate, I'm just Australian and love a punt. I have literally bet on snails racing before😂 But your point is valid, if I did suspect a scam I'd be a lot more hesitant.

Vor year
WTFBOOMDOOM
WTFBOOMDOOM

@fred smith- king of the lunatics What may be biasing you in that direction is that you know that the Veritasium guy is wholesome. What if it was a scammer who earns easy money by ripping people off?

Vor year
Dukjin Im
Dukjin Im

I spent $20 yesterday at Wendy’s. Why should I give af if somebody else makes a little extra money?

Vor year
Nysvarth
Nysvarth

@First name Last name If the face of the coin was changing every trillionth of a second the coin would have either been obliterated or reached escape velocity as he flipped it. Either way you lose $10.

Vor year
Justin Irace
Justin Irace

Our ability to assess the odds of a bet is poor, so erroring on a conservative estimate is a good evolutionary strategy. Also, making the most of what you have is probably also a better evolutionary strategy than risking what you have for more carelessly.

Vor 7 Tage
Femaiden
Femaiden

this reminds me of an ex poker player i met and when i asked them how they could possibly come out ahead, doing what they do. they asked me a theoretical question. they said if they made a bet with me to roll a 20 sided die and if i win, i get 100 million dollars, but if i lose, i had to be their slave for the rest of my life, how low woild the roll have to be for me to accept that bet? and i said i wouldn't accept that bet, even if i would only lose on a 1. . because i played enough d&d to know that the nat 1 always appears at the worst possible time. rationally, i know this is not true and that every side of the die has an equal chance of coming up, so inly losing on a nat 1 means i would have a 95% to win that bet. .but the threat of that loss and what i would lose on the 5% is still too much to overcome the promis of that win. and the other guy said "that's the difference between tou and me, because i would still take that bet, even if i only win it on 11 or higher", basically they were willing to take the bet even if they only had 45% to win it, while i wouldn't take it even if i had 95% to win it . .. honestly, i think it is a BS scenario and i also think that person was full of spit, but meh. the point of my story is that this video made me think of that conversation.

Vor 2 Tage
d dee
d dee

Also note that that each of those 100 bets have to be independent of each other

Vor Monat
Eskay Pen
Eskay Pen

Being loss averse when it comes to possessions makes perfect evolutionary sense. Replace the $10 with adequate food for the day. No matter how good the odds of a coin flip, you're asking me to replace the certainty of eating with the possibility of starving. Pre refrigeration and canning, you offering me a ton more food if I win doesn't mean much.

Vor Monat
Migue
Migue

I’m an actuary. This is a super simplified version on how we calculate how much we need to charge for a policy premium so the insurance company still makes money. Some people win, some people lose, but on average and in the long term, the company comes up top.

Vor 8 Monate
Dominic Pankau
Dominic Pankau

@Troodon Hi Troodon ....how're you doing today

Vor 6 Tage
ARCH LAB 7
ARCH LAB 7

@Troodon 10 years ago lightning hit my house and cause six figures in damage. I had paid about $10,000 over the years for my premiums. After that I don't complain about paying insurance. You might never need it, but when you need it boy do you need it

Vor 9 Tage
piccilo72
piccilo72

Awesome. It's thankless work. I like to use actuaries as examples of why pit bulls are dangerous. Very few insurance companies will insure them because the risk of a massive payout makes it not worth the payments they receive.

Vor 12 Tage
Agent 008
Agent 008

@Gregory Fenn not necessarily. "Risk-averse" means that people like to guarantee their gains and leave their losses to chance. In other words, when offered a guaranteed $10 or a 50% chance of $25, people will pick the $10. But when choosing between a guaranteed loss of $10 or a 50% loss of $25, people will pick the $25. With insurance, you pay to guarantee your losses. So it's like a guaranteed loss of $15 or a 50% chance of $25. Really, the only reason people get insurance is that the magnitude of the potential loss is too large to afford, so they have no choice. But insurance plans also cap the maximum amount that they're willing to pay, which kind of voids that argument too.

Vor 14 Tage
SuperTramp
SuperTramp

Lol, I would definitely have taken every bet offered here! And I’m not even a compulsive gambler, just that the odds were favourable every time, even at 1/1- life involves a little risk now and then!🤣

Vor 23 Tage
SuperTramp
SuperTramp

@ThatGermanView I have no idea bro!🤣

Vor 18 Tage
ThatGermanView
ThatGermanView

why is this random comment with no upvotes highlighted in my comment section? Explain!

Vor 18 Tage
mrcdad
mrcdad

The 10 for 20 bet is not about the odds of winning (50% each time) but the odds of gaining over multiple runs. I could lose more often than win and still come out ahead. 10 for 12 would be too close to even for me to play.

Vor 27 Tage
ThePhilosopher
ThePhilosopher

Would’ve said yes for the ten dollars, apparently I don’t worry to much about a loss. Good thing you didn’t ask me, for study purposes I would’ve definitely messed up that average lol.

Vor 6 Tage
Ilja
Ilja

No, it depends on the odds... 100 times a one on one bet will still (almost) result in a 0 net win/loss.

Vor 20 Tage
Tasman Millen
Tasman Millen

I wouldn't accept the $12 bet... But only to get him to increase the odds

Vor 3 years
Ziegelstein
Ziegelstein

@Inavon But then it becomes a metabet AGAIN, because you have to think about the odds of him refusing to take the bet once you declined his initial offer

Vor year
Viertelhund
Viertelhund

@Inavon Right. It is actually a bet on what someone is willing to offer as a bet. Nevertheless, it's still a bet, because you can not know for sure, that he won't raise the bet anymore the moment, before he walks away (leaving you loosing the opportunity to take the bet, he had initially offered).

Vor 2 years
Inavon
Inavon

@Viertelhund It won't really be a metabet, because as soon as he won't raise it anymore, you can just say, "fine, I'll take it".

Vor 2 years
Matthew Guo
Matthew Guo

10th comment, now get this guy to 1k likes

Vor 2 years
Adabie
Adabie

@ashtar Assadi youre betting on the chance that he wont just say fine and move on, rather increase the amount you win

Vor 2 years
NAAlex
NAAlex

I think the 1/3rd rule applies pretty well to this. If you lose 1/3rd of the total value but gain 2/3rds then its a good bet. In other words the odds have to be atlest 66% gain from the interaction

Vor Monat
Ben Woodcock
Ben Woodcock

In some situations the loss of 10 is legitimately more devastating than gaining 10 or even 15 is good. Say you need it to buy a necessity. With the 10 you have you can get it and have time to make another 10. Winnings nice obviously. But losing means you die or suffer some dire consequence. how little money you have and how bad you need it does effect the odds you'd take. Even at like a 60% bet in your favor if you have finite money and the house has infinite, if you play it enough times you'd eventually have a catastrophic series of busts and be left with no money, unable to continue betting. The value of money isn't linear

Vor Monat
cccspwn
cccspwn

This risk aversion is also observed in the stock market. When the risk free rate increases (the base interest rate increases) in addition to less money in the market, people now can make a larger guaranteed return at a very little risk. So they decrease their allocation to riskier assets dramatically.

Vor 17 Tage
Warren Gibson
Warren Gibson

The marginal utility of $10 gains declines with more wins. The marginal disutility of $10 losses increases with more losses. Hence the asymmetry.

Vor 2 Tage
thunder89
thunder89

Once you raised the offered reward stepwise, you introduced another complexity: The more hesitant a participant is, the more they are offered. So (subconsciously) it makes sense to just wait what your true highest offer is.

Vor 11 Monate
aMiniMonki
aMiniMonki

@xyris Did they claim that?

Vor Monat
xyris
xyris

@aMiniMonki I suppose in this instance that is true. But they can hardly claim this small “test” will somehow reprogram these people never to take chances and always wait for better odds.

Vor Monat
aMiniMonki
aMiniMonki

@xyris Yeah but they didn't have to know to decline the first offer, a majority of people would decline the first offer but if he offers more than it mean's he really wants to do the bet which makes it make sense to wait to see how high they'll get even if you don't do it intentionally

Vor Monat
Who Cares
Who Cares

@paulwal222 Add the complexity of real-life decisions. Sure, a coin is easy to calculate, but usually risks in real life are far harder to evaluate. And if a random guy would offer me a bet on the street I would assume it's a scam.

Vor Monat
xyris
xyris

they had no way of knowing the money would increase though

Vor Monat
subbrn
subbrn

I'd take the bet - if I was risking one pound for 20 pound possible gain 😂

Vor 24 Tage
ChicknCZ
ChicknCZ

05:15 - This cannot be applied to a real life situations (bets) since you do not know the value of the life options you are presented and you have to "bet on". The value of the winning option might only be the same value you bet, in which way you may lose in a long run.

Vor Monat
Combustible Fire
Combustible Fire

I've failed 80% chances 6 times in a row before, 1/2300 doesn't seem to rare for me, but I'm the addict so I would take the 10:10 bet and regret not gaining 20

Vor 17 Tage
M D
M D

This video highlighted just how intuitive statistics and numbers come for some but not for most.

Vor 7 Tage
Ben
Ben

When he added $2 to the original bet, mathematically that made sense to me. I would have taken it. Then he added up to $10 later? I was the sucker.

Vor year
Kim
Kim

Said no all the way up to 15. Once he got to 20 I would’ve said game on sir 🗣

Vor 8 Monate
Sylph
Sylph

I was surprised to find out that for me the line was around 13/10. Over that it's a confident "yes", below a confident "no", but at 13 I'm unsure

Vor 10 Monate
Paskky
Paskky

@Comercial CRO Yeah, like man he expalined that to her and she still got it wrong.

Vor 10 Monate
REX PIMPWAGEN
REX PIMPWAGEN

My first thought when he added 2 bucks was how high was he willing to go.

Vor 10 Monate
Daniel Loves Art
Daniel Loves Art

I immediately chose to take it at the 20. I'm not one to say no to stuff like that too often. I live life slightly on the edge, just a hint of spice to the mix.

Vor 28 Tage
Iljk
Iljk

it ha to be high enough so that in case I lose I’ll still think “mye, was worth a try” and don’t feel bad in retrospect

Vor Monat
Minikame
Minikame

Here's a dumb analogy that might help intuit the idea of treating individual risks as part of a greater fabric of risk. I never used to bother using my discount cards for tiny purchases, like if I went to a shop and bought a can of soda I wouldn't bother swiping that 5% off card to save what, 2.5p? Subconsciously, I was ringfencing those purchases from what I considered expenditure because it fell below a threshold I thought to be 'real spending'. So imagine how stupid I felt when I did a thorough review of a year's worth of spending history a while back and discovered that over 80% of my gross expenditure was allocated to countless tiny 'meaningless' purchases. If I had saved that 5% each time and factored in income tax, it would have been the equivalent of a 9% pay rise. Nothing happens in a vacuum, ever. Today it's a YouTuber offering you a bizarre coin flip bet, tomorrow it's a job interview you pass up because the risk of getting caught interviewing puts you off.

Vor Monat
Mark Klose
Mark Klose

I'd like to see you do this in the USA. Australians are a lot more risk averse than Americans I think

Vor 28 Tage
Nguyet Phan My
Nguyet Phan My

Maybe you should take into account that the first time you ask them the 50/05 choice , their answer was no. Which making the second time (the 20$ offer) more prone to rejection cause they are already focusing on the lose based of the first offer. We, human tends to remember on the first thing that comes to mind.

Vor 5 years
Orun Makarov
Orun Makarov

50/05?

Vor 3 years
Roaring Lion
Roaring Lion

Yeah there are a few of these niche physiological tricks your mind plays on you in these kinds of situations.

Vor 3 years
Joe Nguyen
Joe Nguyen

Tama Whiunui. No the psychological phenomenon doesn’t work like that. It’s more about gradually pushing the limits of what they will say yes to. If you want to research it more, it’s called “foot in the door phenomenon”

Vor 4 years
Thomas Godart
Thomas Godart

Very well said. Yes, and it's a very common seller's technique: to ask a question (or many) that will inevitably lead to a "yes", in order to prepare the mind and then reach the question about buying, sometimes formulated as a "so how many of them do you buy?". Their is a mental cost for changing direction into the discussion, from "I'm with you" to "I disagree with you", that lazy brains will try to avoid and will end up in buying totally useless things just to please the seller.

Vor 4 years
Jorge Pinal
Jorge Pinal

I think the whole concept of "looking for people to bid" is the desicive factor of not wanting to bid ! these odd will problably change if you are in a place like a Carnival .... the sentiment will be completely different and the precondition of the people will be as well... then the other factors as you indicate ... even with the same people... you could assure but they just not being "preconditioned"

Vor 4 Tage
chronx2424
chronx2424

If I knew for sure the odds were true 50/50, then the expected value is above my loss, so I'd take the bet. But if someone on the sidewalk came up to me in NYC and asked me for a 2:1 bet, I'd suspect some kind of shenanigans goin on and would be hesitant to accept

Vor 4 Tage
monkey
monkey

i'd love to take this bet i'm not sure if video game luck transfers to real life cause i often win my 50/50s so i'm willing to risk $10 if veritasium walked up and asked

Vor 27 Tage
ironthanosinfinity30
ironthanosinfinity30

Honestly , when he said he'd offer 15 dollars, I would say yes

Vor 22 Tage
Ghauldian
Ghauldian

I would do it for $10 just for the fun of it. Its nice to take risks every once in a while, even if sometimes they might not work out.

Vor 11 Monate
FameLuck
FameLuck

@Ryan Weston would you do it for $1, 10 times?

Vor Monat
Ekkehard B.
Ekkehard B.

I'll do it for 10.15$ Just let me do the flipping eleven times, then I decide the most often result, and then the 12th throw counts.

Vor Monat
Grundewalt
Grundewalt

@Ryan Weston that is why the most money lotteries and casinos make is on small bets, 1$ 649, slot machines etc. It is amazing how old people get scammed this way.

Vor Monat
Saudi Mapper
Saudi Mapper

exactly how i think 😂

Vor 2 Monate
FameLuck
FameLuck

Yeah, risk 10 for extra 10. You lose, whatever. You win? Instant gratification and I'm going to buy something to celebrate

Vor 2 Monate
Shawbag 11
Shawbag 11

This is kinda the logic behind card counting. If you play enough when the odds are in your favour you can come out on top but the issue is you need to play enough times to meet those odds and have enough money that you can afford to lose. Fact is people like me even knowing that if i play enough i will eventually come out on top still wouldn’t feel happy doing it. Maths is mostly right but there is still a element of luck involved and sometimes luck can let you down even if the numbers say otherwise and thats a risk i just dont like taking.

Vor Monat
Thevenver
Thevenver

Great video. Eye opening. Thank you

Vor 23 Tage
Kakss
Kakss

Does higher price really shift the favour of a bet? You animated the chart as if a single flip of a coin was already beneficial just because of the value difference but the chances of winning and losing don't change at all and you still lose all or win all with no in-between. When there are more than one flip then sure, the reward ratio does impact the outcome but not for a single flip. It's like with the bell curve. You can predict result of a lot of flips, but each single one can still land anywhere and single flip is not in your favour no matter what the prices are. Or anyone's favour assuming it is fair 50/50 chance. It feels very much like gambling promotion where the grand price is so insane it *feels* like it outweighs the chances and puts betting in your favour, but it's the chances what matters and the chances are against you.

Vor 27 Tage
maxydey42
maxydey42

There's also a trust component, isn't it? If someone comes to you offering to flip a coin, you'd be hesitant no matter what chances they give you. In fact if they give me positive chances. it become even more suspicious. I would more likely accept the bet if I was allowed to use my own coin, and I was the one to flip it.

Vor Monat
HollywoodF1
HollywoodF1

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Wayne Gretzski. —Michael Scott

Vor year
Troodon
Troodon

Counterpoint: You lose 0% of the money you don't risk.

Vor 3 Monate
Nick Llama
Nick Llama

Rex Grossman also always thought like this. His thought process never included the "Every time I throw into triple coverage, it's likely to get intercepted and returned for a pick six" variable.

Vor 10 Monate
Dinoboy676
Dinoboy676

@S Gordon the chain has already been disrupted, please dont do it again

Vor 10 Monate
S Gordon
S Gordon

Fabulous quote. Thanks!

Vor 11 Monate
Dinoboy676
Dinoboy676

@Gabriel D. “You miss 100% of the shots you don't take” . Wayne Gretzski. - Michael Scott - Hollywoodf1- Harry Beckwith - X eiton - Lazy Ro - ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ - Paulo L - Simon seis - Robert Strong-Morse - Jiminy Lummox - Luxios - JoMama - Tauseef Hasnat - Nguyen An - Floyd the dolphin- Eurros Dan - The Losing Impossible - Bentleyscool - Myggenpv-Farmertree Hansen's - Pranav Prabhu - Waaz YT - Dinglesplat MC - Gabriel D.

Vor 11 Monate

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